ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico (93E) has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a prominent band of deep convection has formed around its western half. The latest Dvorak classification Data-T from TAFB is a 2.0, which corresponds to 30 kt. Based on the available data, the system has been classified as Tropical Depression Eleven. The depression is moving westward, with an estimated forward speed of 10 kt. While all models agree that the cyclone will head generally west-northwestward for the next 5 or more days, moving well south and west of Mexico, there is substantial disagreement on its forward speed. The main source of this uncertainty appears to be differences in the strength of the primary steering mechanism influencing the depression, a deep ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. that extends over the eastern Pacific. The stronger the ridge, the faster the cyclone will move. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much higher than normal by the end of the forecast, with even the consensus models relatively far apart. At day 5, the gap between HCCA and TVCN is more than 150 n mi. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast doesn't favor any one model or consensus aid, generally staying between the simple and corrected consensus tracks. The environment looks very conducive for strengthening, possibly significantly so. SHIPS-derived shear is forecast to be near or below 10 kt through day 5, with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs available as well. It will likely take a day or so for the depression to get sufficiently organized to take advantage of this environment, so only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. Looking beyond that, the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS rapid intensification (RI) probabilities for 65kt/72 h are both above 60 percent. The NHC forecast explicitly shows RI starting at 36 h and continuing through 72 h. While there is spread at just how strong the cyclone will get, most models suggest its peak will come between 72 and 96 h, so a peak intensity higher than what the NHC forecast shows is definitely possible. Beginning at 96 h, the cyclone should begin to quickly spin down as it moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
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