ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 Irwin's convective renaissance was short lived. Deep convection associated with the tropical storm has decreased substantially since 0300 UTC. However, ASCAT data around 0500 UTC showed an area of winds near or just above 35 kt to the north of Irwin, suggesting that the cyclone had briefly (and very slightly) strengthened. Since then, the decrease in convection has likely been accompanied by a slight decrease in the winds, so the advisory intensity remains at 35 kt. The tropical storm has finally turned toward the west, and there is no change to the track forecast thinking. For the next several days Irwin will be steered generally westward by a mid- to low-level ridge to the north of Irwin. The NHC track forecast is very near the TVCN and GFEX consensus models. Likewise, there's no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. A combination of cool sea surface temperatures and dry surrounding air should cause Irwin to slowly weaken. The tropical cyclone could continue to produce enough convection to remain a tropical cyclone for another day or so, but it should become post-tropical by around mid-week, if not much sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.5N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 19.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 19.1N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 19.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z 19.4N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 19.5N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 19.6N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 20.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
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