ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 Deep convection has been fading away, and Irwin is getting closer to becoming a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery suggests mid-level dry air is wrapping around much of circulation and an area of decaying convection remains over the northern portion of storm. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt based on recent ASCAT passes. Irwin has yet to make its much anticipated westward turn and is still moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. Still, model guidance insists the cyclone will go to the west shortly and remains tightly clustered. The general westward motion, with a increase in forward speed, is expected to continue through the forecast period. The latest track forecast has shifted to the north and lies between the previous forecast and the simple consensus aids. The storm appears to be in the process of weakening. The extent of tropical-storm-force winds in the northeast quadrant has decreased significantly based on the satellite-derived surface wind data. Sea surface temperatures and mid-level relative humidities are expected to decrease along the forecast track and Irwin is expect weaken further in the next day or so. The storm is still forecast to become a remnant low within 48 hours, though this could happen sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.6N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.0N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 18.9N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 19.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 19.2N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 19.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 19.2N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:13 UTC