ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 ...HILARY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 113.9W ABOUT 350 MI...570 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 113.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas Marina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern California Sunday afternoon. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland near and along the forecast track. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday through early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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