ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Greg Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 Greg has been able to produce relatively short-lived bursts of convection in its northern semicircle over the past 12 to 18 hours, but it has been occurring significantly far from the increasingly ill-defined low-level circulation center. Shear is analyzed to be relatively light, but satellite observations indicate that even this morning's flare-up of thunderstorms have been unable to wrap around the cyclone's core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are 1.5/2.5 from PHFO/PGTW, with SAB determining that Greg is too weak to classify. Automated intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are all below tropical-storm-strength, and a blend of these estimates yields an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt. The initial motion vector for this advisory is 270/11 kt. Greg will move generally toward the west (or just south of west) with the trade wind flow in which it is embedded for the remainder of its existence. The latest track forecast represents little change from the previous, and lies close to TVCE and EMXI guidance. While SSTs along the forecast track are sufficiently warm to sustain a tropical cyclone, Greg is expected to gradually weaken over the next day or two as increasing vertical wind shear prevents convection from persisting over the center. Greg will likely soon become post- tropical, then dissipate by Saturday, with the official intensity forecast placing the greatest weight on the dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.2N 157.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 12.1N 158.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0600Z 11.4N 164.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:09 UTC