ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Deep convection associated with Greg continues to pulse, and is sheared to the north of the low level center. Subjective Dvorak intensities from PHFO, JTWC and SAB range from 2.0 to 3.0 (30 to 45 kt), with objective intensities ranging from 31 to 45 kt. A blend of these estimates support holding the intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion is 280/10 kt, as Greg continues to move just north of west. This westward path will continue for the next 24 hours as Greg moves along the southern boundary of a low- to mid- level ridge to the north. In 24 to 36 hours, a deepening ridge to the north of Greg will steer the system to the west-southwest. Greg will pass well south of Hawaii during this time. The official forecast track remains close to the previous advisory, following closely the TVCE in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. Greg remains over sufficiently warm SSTs, in an environment of light southerly shear. While the system should remain over sufficiently warm waters, an increase in northerly shear is expected beyond 24 hours. As such, the official forecast holds the system steady for the next 12 hours, and then follows the dynamical models with steady weakening thereafter. Greg is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 12.1N 154.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 158.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 11.5N 163.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1800Z 11.1N 166.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 10.5N 168.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster M Ballard NNNN
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