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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0900 UTC WED AUG 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 124.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 132.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 125.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG
 
 
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