ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 Fernanda has lacked convective activity since yesterday evening and is therefore considered a post-tropical cyclone. With no convective activity, Dvorak estimates are no longer a reliable source for intensity guidance. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory largely based on the trend in geostationary satellite imagery. An occasional burst of convection is still possible given 25-26 degrees C sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Fernanda. Model guidance indicates the cyclone will continue to weaken in an increasingly dry and stable environment for the next few days and is likely to dissipate by day 3. The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days as the system is steered by the low-level flow around a ridge to its north. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Those forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:07 UTC