ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Fernanda has refused to give in to the increasingly inhibiting environment and has recently produced a fragmented band with associated -63 degree Celsius cloud top temperatures in the west quadrant of the cyclone. Assuming, however, that the new burst is insufficient to maintain Fernanda's previous advisory intensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. Cooler oceanic temperatures (sub 26C) and an very dry, stable marine-layer air mass should result in continued weakening. Fernanda is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours, with dissipation occurring this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. There has been no change to the forecast track philosophy. A subtropical ridge should remain anchored to the north of Fernanda during the next few days. Accordingly, Fernanda is forecast to move generally westward through the period. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and only a slight along-track adjustment was needed for the latest NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.7N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.6N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 16.5N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z 16.5N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:07 UTC