ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Corrected time of dissipation Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any deep convection remaining in association with the system. Given the lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique. However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of uncertainty. The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt. The steering pattern is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge established the north of the cyclone. This should result in a continued westward motion for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over progressively cooler waters. Therefore, the system is not likely to regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 96 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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