ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 Fernanda's structure is becoming more ragged and less organized this evening, as it moves into a drier and more stable airmass. Infrared satellite trends since the previous advisory have drastically deteriorated, with convection dissipating, particularly on the northern side of the system. Cloud tops have been warming over the last few hours as well. Subjective Dvorak final-T estimates were lower for this cycle as well with SAB and TAFB at T3.5 and 4.0, respectively. Although, some of the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are still a bit higher. Using a blend of satellite estimates and assuming a lag in the spin down of Fernanda's winds, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt. Fernanda continues to weaken, barely holding on to hurricane strength. Vertical wind shear continues to effect the system, as well as rapidly cooling sea-surface temperatures, and mid-level relative humidity levels below 40 percent. This combination will continue to cause rapid weakening, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical storm within very soon, and a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 h. There is good agreement from global model simulated infrared satellite images that the cyclone will be void of deep convection in about 36 h. The remnant low is now expected to open up into a trough by day 5. The motion of Fernanda remains generally westward, with a mid-level ridge expected to continue to steer the cyclone generally westward throughout the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle once again shifted a bit south, possibly in response to the storm quickly weakening and becoming more steered by the low-level flow. Thus, the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south of the prior one, but not quite as far as south as the HCCA corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.1N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.2N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0600Z 17.3N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 17.5N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 141.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 17.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:07 UTC