ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 Fernanda continues weakening this evening. The overall structure of the hurricane on visible and infrared satellite has not changed much, with its central dense overcast remaining mostly intact. However, recent microwave imagery from GMI and SSMIS show the inner-core structure has degraded more quickly, with the low- and mid-level eye signatures no longer aligned, and the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced west of the low-level center. Subjective intensity estimates were both down to T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, but some of the objective intensity estimates, such as UW-CIMSS ADT remain a bit higher, up near 90 kt. The initial intensity this advisory is set at 80 kt, closer to the lower end of the intensity guidance range. Fernanda's inner core is becoming increasingly ragged, likely due to the unfavorable combination of mid-level shear undercutting its outflow, very dry mid-level environmental air, and sea-surface temperatures which are quickly decreasing. These factors foreshadow weakening, likely rapid, over the next few days, and Fernanda is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global and regional-hurricane model guidance which shows the cyclone losing organized deep convection around that time frame. The motion of Fernanda remains just poleward of due west, but a bit faster than before at 280/12 kt, as the mid-level ridge to its north has become better established. The track guidance this cycle has actually shifted a bit south, possibly in response to the storm quickly weakening in the short-term forecast and becoming more steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Thus, the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south of the prior one, but not quite as far as HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.3N 124.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.4N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.6N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 17.9N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 17.9N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 18.0N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z 18.1N 152.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:07 UTC