ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression. The last couple of microwave satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0. Based on these data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the next few days. Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that the cyclone will be moving into. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:07 UTC