ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Deep convection associated with Eugene has been decreasing as the cyclone begins to move over cooler waters. There is significant uncertainty in the current intensity of the storm, which is set at 50 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Given the diminishing convection, this may be a generous estimate, however. Eugene continues to move briskly toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/17 kt. A pronounced weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge along 120W-125W should cause the cyclone to slow down considerably in 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter Eugene is likely to turn northward into the weakness, and by 48-60 hours, the system should drift slowly as the steering currents collapse. The official track forecast follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous NHC prediction. The cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into an increasingly drier air mass. Thus Eugene should continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system in 36 hours, or sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, IVCN. Given the recent decay of convection, however, the system could weaken even faster than shown here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.3N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.3N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 25.3N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 26.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/1200Z 27.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:06 UTC