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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene is sending some mixed signals this afternoon.  While earlier 
a possible eye feature was present on the visible imagery, the 
feature has weakened and become part of a ragged central dense 
overcast.  Overall, the system doesn't seem much different than the 
last advisory, so 60 kt is maintained on this cycle.  The Dvorak 
estimate ranges are quite large, with estimates of 40-65 kt, so 
the initial wind is a bit more uncertain than average.  

The storm should begin to weaken overnight as it crosses a tight 
sea-surface temperature gradient, with very cold waters along the 
forecast track within 24 h.  By early Tuesday, Eugene should 
transition to a non-convective post-tropical low, consistent with 
the stable environment and the latest global model infrared 
satellite forecasts.  The new NHC forecast is slightly lower than 
the last one, between the model consensus and the NOAA 
corrected-consensus prediction.
 
Eugene is moving along pretty quickly to the west-northwest at 
about 17 kt.  This motion should continue for about a day until it 
reaches the edge of the subtropical ridge.  Thereafter, a 
weaker cyclone should slow down and turn northward toward a 
weakness in the ridge.  However, the very hostile environment should 
cause what's left of Eugene to stall well west of Baja California 
and degenerate to a trough in about 3 days.  The latest NHC track 
is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern 
Pacific track consensus TVCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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