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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

Dora remains on a westward track to pass far south of Hawaii, posing 
no direct threat to the islands. Satellite data shows Dora has had 
little structural change in the past 12 hours, remaining a compact 
and symmetric system. A recent 2317Z AMSR2 pass shows solid deep 
convection surrounding the eye. A blend of the latest subjective 
Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, combined with the 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support maintaining Dora at an 
initial intensity of 115 kt. 

The initial motion vector is 265/20 kt. As has been the case for 
several days, the track guidance remains tightly clustered through 
day 3 maintaining this general trajectory, with some limited model 
spread in the track beyond. The forecast track closely follows the 
previous advisory, with westward movement continuing through day 3, 
and then a more west-northwest track as Dora approaches the date 
line.

The current environment around Dora remains largely unchanged, with 
the SST of 27 C and low shear. Little change in the environment 
surrounding Dora is expected in the short term, so minor 
fluctuations in intensity are still possible. Beyond day 3, as the 
system begins to gain latitude, SST values are expected to increase 
just a bit (28-29 C). However around the same time, shear is 
expected to increase. With the general consensus of the 
intensity models showing weakening during this time, it would 
appear the shear will be a larger contributing factor to weakening 
Dora.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 12.0N 152.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 12.0N 155.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 12.0N 158.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 12.3N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 12.8N 166.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 13.3N 170.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 14.2N 174.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.3N 179.5E   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 18.5N 173.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Birchard
 
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