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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

While there are occasional hints of an eye in visible and infrared 
satellite imagery, the organization of Dora has decreased a little 
since the last advisory. This is most notable in the eastern 
semicircle, where the size of the central dense overcast has 
diminished due to the effects of easterly shear.  Satellite 
intensity estimates are now in the 90-105 kt range, and the initial 
intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 95 kt.
 
This is starting to sound like a stuck record, but the initial 
motion is again 265/16 kt.  The track guidance and the track 
forecast philosophy are again unchanged from the previous advisory, 
as a deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build 
westward and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire 
forecast period.  The new forecast track has noise-level 
adjustments from the previous track.

The current shear should let up in the next 12-18 h, but until that 
time Dora should continue to weaken some.  After 18 h, the cyclone 
should be over 26-27C sea surface temperatures, with the forecast 
track taking Dora close to a patch of colder water between 72-96 h. 
Based on these conditions and the intensity guidance, the new 
intensity forecast calls for a little more weakening during the 
first 24 h, followed by little change in strength from 24-72 h.  
After 72 h, slight weakening is forecast due to the colder water 
just to the north of the track.  The new forecast is near the 
intensity consensus through 72 h, then lies a little above the 
consensus. It should be noted, though, that even while weakening 
Dora is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day 
forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 13.8N 128.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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