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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023
 
As noted in the previous advisory, Dora appeared to have completed
an eyewall replacement earlier today, and the small eye warmed
considerably by 0000 UTC, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 degrees Celsius.
An intense burst of deep convection within the southern eyewall has
recently obscured the eye, but that might be more of a reflection
of the hurricane's small size rather than a significant degradation
of its structure.  Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased to
T6.5/127 kt and T6.0/115 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, while
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 120-130 kt.  The
initial intensity is conservatively set near the lower end of the
estimates--120 kt--given the recent obscuration of the eye.
 
Dora's initial motion remains south of due west, or 260/16 kt.  A
stronger-than-normal ridge located to the north is forecast to build
westward in tandem with Dora, keeping the hurricane on a general
westward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period.  In fact,
much of the track guidance suggests that Dora is likely to lose
latitude for the next 4 days or so.  The main forecast difference
compared to the previous advisory is that the guidance is showing a
slower motion in the 2- to 4-day period, and the NHC track forecast
has been slowed down accordingly, trending toward the HCCA consensus
aid.
 
Despite Dora's recent re-strengthening, the intensity guidance
suggests that the hurricane may begin weakening again during the
next 24-36 hours, likely as a result of some increase in shear and
water temperatures cooling to near 27C.  By 36-48 hours, however,
the shear appears to decrease once again, and sufficiently warm
waters of 26-27C should allow the hurricane's intensity to change
little for a couple of days.  It should be noted that if Dora's
track shifts any farther south, then it would move over warmer
waters and could even have the potential to re-intensify in the
low-shear environment.  Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and
5, following the overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora
is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 14.1N 123.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.9N 125.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 13.6N 128.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 13.3N 131.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 13.0N 135.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 12.6N 141.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 12.4N 149.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 12.7N 157.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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