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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

Dora's rapid intensification has ended during the past several 
hours.  While the eyewall cloud tops remain quite cold, the eye has 
become cloud-filled and indistinct. The various subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so 
based on this the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.

The initial motion is now 265/16.  As mentioned in the previous 
forecast discussion, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge 
north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the 
next several days.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered in 
both speed and direction, and the new forecast track, which is close 
to the consensus models, has only minor adjustments from the 
previous forecast.

Dora has likely peaked in intensity.  While the storm is currently 
over sea surface temperatures near 28C, the global model forecasts 
indicate that increasing upper-level easterly winds should produce 
shear during the next 36-48 h, and this is likely to cause problems 
for the small inner core.  Thus, the intensity forecast follows 
the trend of the guidance in showing weakening during this time.  
After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over 
water temperatures of 26-27C.  The intensity guidance during this 
time shows a more gradual weakening than what is expected earlier 
in the forecast period, and this part of the intensity forecast is 
near or a little below the intensity consensus.  Uncertainty 
remains high with the intensity forecast since this compact system 
could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 14.7N 120.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 14.6N 122.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 13.9N 128.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 13.4N 134.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 13.1N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 13.0N 145.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 13.0N 153.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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