ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Four-E has persisted overnight and into this morning. However, the convective pattern is one of a strongly sheared system, with cold echo tops only over the eastern side of the system. In the last few hours, Proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed near the western edge of the convection. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T2.0, respectively. Given the current structure with the low-level center becoming exposed, and the subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt. The depression continues to be in an environment of strong upper-level westerly wind shear of 25 to 30 knots, which has exposed the low-level center, and displaced the convection to the east. The system will be crossing the 25 degree C isotherm later today, with cooler SSTs remaining along the forecast track. Given these marginal conditions, it is likely the depression will be short-lived, with the system becoming a remnant low later this weekend, and dissipating by 60 hours. However, some models suggest it could weaken and dissipate sooner. The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the depression on this general heading and speed for the next day or so. Afterward, the shallow remnant low is expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the previous forecast, which is near the center of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.2N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.8N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:59 UTC