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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032023
300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023
 
Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage 
near the center of the system during the past several hours.  
Recent ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that the low has 
developed a well-defined  center and maximum winds of around 30 kt 
on its west side. The estimated center position is a bit uncertain 
since there are considerable convective clouds obscuring it. 
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical depression, and the 
initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on the ASCAT data 
and a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is moving quickly to the west-northwest and the 
initial motion is estimated to be 290/18 kt.  The steering pattern 
for the depression seems fairly straightforward.  A strong mid-level 
ridge to the north of the system is expected to remain in place 
during the next several days. Therefore, the west-northwestward 
motion will continue throughout the forecast period.  The models are 
in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near 
the various consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Three-E is currently over warm SSTs and will 
remain over warm ocean temperatures through the next several days. 
Dynamical guidance indicates that the depression is currently 
dealing with some northeasterly shear, and that shear will continue 
during the next day or so. Thereafter, vertical wind shear is 
expected to decrease for several days. This lower wind shear and 
warm SSTs will foster a conducive environment for strengthening 
through the end of the week. The intensity forecast reflects gradual 
strengthening in the short-term, with the system strengthening into 
a hurricane in about 3 days. Towards the end of the forecast period, 
the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs, which should 
end the strengthening phase and cause gradual weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 12.5N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 12.8N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 12.9N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 13.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 13.2N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 13.7N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 14.3N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 15.7N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 16.8N 137.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
 
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