ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Adrian continues to weaken. The low-level center is decoupled from a limited area of active convection over the western portion of the circulation. Adrian is passing just to the north of Clarion Island, and a Mexican Navy automated weather station has recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a gust of 48 kt. The objective and subjective satellite estimates have continued to fall this afternoon, with T3.0 Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT, AiDT, and SATCON objective estimates between 47-53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The storm is still moving west-northwestward at around 300/6 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next couple of days as the vortex spins down and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Further weakening is expected due to continued easterly shear, decreasing SSTs, and a drier and more stable air mass along the forecast track. The official NHC forecast now shows Adrian degenerating to a remnant low in 24 h, with dissipation early next week. This updated forecast is very similar to the previous one with no other notable changes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.7N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:54 UTC