ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Adrian is rapidly weakening. The cyclone is only producing a small area of deep convection, which is displaced to the west of its center due to some easterly shear. The significantly degraded satellite structure of Adrian indicates it is no longer a hurricane, and the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak data-T numbers (T3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The center of Adrian is passing very near Clarion Island, where a Mexican navy automated weather station has reported sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts of 40-50 kt during the past several hours. The initial motion of Adrian is west-northwestward at 300/6 kt. Additional weakening is expected as Adrian continues to move generally west-northwestward toward cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. As a result, simulated satellite imagery from the global and hurricane models suggest that Adrian could become devoid of organized convection within the next 24 h. The NHC forecast shows Adrian weakening to a tropical depression by early Sunday and degenerating to a remnant low soon thereafter. Then, the shallow low should turn more westward within the low-level flow and eventually dissipate by Tuesday. Overall, no significant changes were made to the official forecast with this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.2N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.6N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 19.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 19.8N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:54 UTC