ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 900 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Adrian appears to have begun its anticipated weakening trend. The eye is no long apparent on geostationary satellite imagery and cloud top temperatures have warmed overall. Microwave satellite imagery from 2037 UTC showed deep convection only to the west of center, implying the easterly shear has increased. Subjective satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and the final T-numbers are at T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 80 kt. The hurricane has crossed the 26 degree C sea surface temperature isotherm this evening and SSTs along the track forecast are projected to decrease steadily. Adrian is also moving into an dry and stable airmass. Model guidance all predict steady to rapid weakening in the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is on the higher end of the model guidance and shows steady weakening. Adrian is expected to be a tropical storm in the next day or so and a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the storm is steered by a ridge to the northeast. A gradual turn to the west is forecast as the decaying vortex is caught in the low-level flow. The latest track prediction is similar to the previous advisory and close to the corrected consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 18.1N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 19.4N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.7N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/1200Z 19.9N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:54 UTC