ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Early morning AMSR2 microwave images of Adrian revealed a well-defined eye signature in the 89 GHz and 37 GHz channels, although a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers suggests some vortex tilt with height. In conventional satellite imagery, the deepest inner-core convection is confined to the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, while cloud tops have recently warmed to the northwest of the center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory. Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear through this evening could allow for some additional strengthening. Then, Adrian is forecast to encounter stronger easterly shear as it moves over gradually cooler waters, which is likely to induce weakening by this weekend and early next week. The official NHC forecast lies slightly above the IVCN consensus aid in the near term, then shows more rapid weakening beyond 48 h. Unfavorable environmental conditions should make it difficult for Adrian to sustain organized convection beyond 72 h, and Adrian is forecast to be a remnant low at days 4 and 5. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days with little change to the overall steering pattern. The center of Adrian was relocated slightly farther north based on the early morning microwave data, and the updated NHC forecast lies to the right of the previous one in the direction of the TVCE/HCCA aids. The latest track guidance also keeps Adrian on a more steady westward course through the forecast period. As a result, this forecast is somewhat faster than previous issuances at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.0N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.2N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 17.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.1N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 18.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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