ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Adrian has had several convective bursts in the inner core throughout the overnight period, particularly on the eastern side. However, the eye is still not very well defined, with the system struggling to wrap deep convection around western side. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB have increased slightly from the last advisory cycle, thus the initial intensity of 75 kt. Adrian is moving westward, or 285/7 kt, south of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken the next 2 days, which will slow the storm's forward motion. Towards the end of the forecast period the ridge weakens further, and the hurricane may begin to interact with Tropical Depression Two-E to its east. As this happens, the track model guidance shows Adrian meandering or becoming stationary by the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is very close to the previous forecast. Adrian will remain in a fairly favorable environment for the next day or so, with guidance indicating low vertical wind shear, and warm SSTs near 28 degrees Celsius. Therefore, some slight additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. By 48 hours, models show increasing easterly shear over the system, associated with an upper-level high building to the north. Adrian will also be moving into cooler SSTs during this time frame, the combination of cooler SST and vertical wind shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.5N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.0N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 16.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 16.9N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 17.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:53 UTC