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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
 
Despite the well-defined structure noted in microwave imagery from 
this morning, Adrian's visible and infrared satellite presentation 
is quite ragged.  An eye appears to be forming, but deep convection 
appears thin within the northern eyewall, possibly due to continued 
northerly shear beneath the outflow level.  Still, both subjective 
and objective satellite intensity estimates have risen since this 
morning, and Adrian's initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt.

Recent fixes suggest the hurricane has slowed down, and the initial 
motion estimate is westward, or 275/5 kt.  Mid-tropospheric ridging 
to the north of Adrian is expected to weaken during the next couple 
of days as a mid-level trough develops west of the Baja California 
peninsula, and that should keep the hurricane's forward motion 
relatively slow toward the west or west-northwest for the entire 
forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is close to the various 
consensus aids, and the guidance envelope is tightly clustered 
through at least day 3.  However, it's notable that the HCCA aid 
is slower than much of the other guidance, and given Adrian's 
recent slower-than-expected motion, it's possible that future 
forecasts could be slowed down further to account for this trend.
 
There is a noticeable dichotomy in the intensity guidance, with the 
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models showing much more 
additional intensification compared to the dynamical models and 
consensus aids, which show Adrian's intensity flat-lining soon.  A 
little more strengthening is indicated in the NHC intensity 
forecast since vertical shear is expected to be low for the next 36 
to 48 hours.  Fast weakening is anticipated after 48 hours due to 
a significant increase in easterly shear, as well as cooler waters. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECWMF models suggests 
that Adrian could lose deep convection by day 4, and the official 
forecast therefore calls for the system to degenerate into a 
remnant low around that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 15.3N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 15.5N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 16.1N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 16.4N 113.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 16.8N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 17.6N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1800Z 17.6N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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