ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave images reveal that Adrian has developed a well-defined eye, although that feature is obscured in conventional visible and infrared satellite imagery by the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). This structure indicates that Adrian has become a hurricane, and the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of the most recent objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. Based on this estimate, Adrian has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours. Upper-level outflow is slightly restricted within the northeastern quadrant, and a slight offset of the low- and mid-level eyes in the microwave data suggest there could be some mid-level northerly shear affecting the hurricane. Adrian is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge which extends westward from northern Mexico. This ridge is expected to weaken during the next 2 days as a mid-level trough develops west of the Baja California peninsula, and this should cause Adrian to slow down further and turn toward the west-northwest by 48 hours. Although the ridge restrengthens north of Adrian by day 4, the hurricane may begin to interact with another weather disturbance (EP92) to its east, and the track models respond by showing Adrian becoming nearly stationary or meandering by the end of the forecast period. That said, there is less-than-normal spread among the track models, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous prediction. Model guidance suggests that mid-level shear could continue to affect Adrian, otherwise the deep-layer shear remains low for the next 48 hours. Along with water temperatures of around 28 degrees Celsius, these conditions should allow Adrian to strengthen further. However, easterly shear is forecast to increase in earnest by 48 hours, and the updated NHC intensity forecast therefore shows faster weakening after that time (although it is still above the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids). Adrian is now shown as a post-tropical remnant low by day 5 due to the expected effects of continued shear and cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.2N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.4N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.6N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.8N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 16.1N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 16.4N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.8N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:53 UTC