ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Adrian continues to strengthen this morning, with convective banding becoming well-defined and a CDO developing over the center with cloud tops of -80C to -90C. In addition, an upper-level anticyclonic outflow is becoming well established. Subjective Dvorak estimates were DT 4.0/65-kt from SAB and DT 3.5/55-kt from TAFB. The latest objective intensity estimates were similar 57 kt from ADT and 54 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial ASCAT-B, but it likely did not capture the highest winds on the northeast side of Adrian's circulation. A blend of the subjective and objective intensity guidance supports an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. The storm is within a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, warm SSTs and a moist air mass. Thus, further strengthening is expected, with Adrian likely to become a hurricane later today. Later in the forecast period, guidance indicates some increase in wind shear in about 3 days, and Adrian is likely to move over cooler SSTs towards the end of the forecast period. These two factors should lead to gradual weakening. The official forecast is mostly above the consensus intensity guidance in the short-term, given the favorable environment and Adrian's current storm structure. The latest center fixes show the cyclone continues to be moving westward at 270/8 kt. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge to the north of Adrian is forecast to gradually weaken as it is eroded by a weak trough to the west of Baja California. This should result in a weakening of the steering currents and a decrease in the tropical cyclone's forward motion. The track model guidance shows a lot of spread near the end of the forecast period so there is more than usual uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 15.3N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 16.2N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.6N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 17.1N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:53 UTC