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Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
As anticipated, Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened slightly today. 
The convection has waned in the vicinity of the low-level 
circulation center, which is now completely exposed on visible 
satellite imagery and largely devoid of convection. Current 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have 
continued to trend downward, and a blend of these estimates supports 
a reduction of Tammy's initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the prior 
NHC forecast. It is possible that convection may return episodically 
during the next day or so, but a combination of strong shear and a 
dry mid-level airmass will likely preclude intensification 
throughout the forecast period. Tammy is forecast to gradually 
weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next 
week. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and 
represents a blend of the prior forecast and the intensity consensus 
guidance.
 
After accelerating earlier this morning, Tammy is now moving 
steadily eastward at 90/13 kt. Beginning tonight, the tropical storm 
is expected to gradually turn southeastward and then southward 
during the next day or two as it tracks along the northern and 
eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and 
its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn to the southwest 
before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 
prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids and the 
prior NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 33.0N  54.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 31.8N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 30.3N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 28.6N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0600Z 27.4N  46.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 26.8N  47.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
 
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