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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  46.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  46.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  45.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N  47.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.2N  49.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  20SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.7N  50.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.2N  52.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.5N  54.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.9N  56.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 32.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N  55.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  46.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BUCCI
 
 
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