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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  44.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  44.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  44.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N  45.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N  47.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N  49.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.3N  50.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.7N  52.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N  54.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 29.3N  57.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N  58.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  44.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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