Tropical Storm MARGOT (Text)

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
Margot hasn't become any better organized during the last six hours. 
Deep convection is limited to the northeast quadrant of the sheared 
tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes showed winds up to 30 kt in 
the eastern half of the cyclone, but did not sample the location 
where the maximum winds are likely occuring. Satellite estimates 
from TAFB and the ADT were therefore used as the basis for the 
intensity for this advisory, which is still 35 kt.
Despite the shear and some dry air around the tropical storm noted 
in water vapor imagery, all of the intensity guidance indicates that 
Margot will strengthen over the next few days. The NHC forecast 
therefore shows slow strengthening throughout the forecast period, 
similar to the previous advisory. Most of the models are similar to 
the NHC forecast, but both HAFS models are outliers, showing Margot 
strengthening to a major hurricane in 3-4 days. This appears 
unlikely at least within the next 3 days or so, given the expected 
wind shear and the current structure of the tropical storm. 
Therefore, the NHC forecast is very close to, but generally just 
below the intensity consensus.
In contrast, there is higher confidence in the track forecast. All 
models indicate that Margot will continue its current 
west-northwestward motion for another day or so, and then turn 
north-northwestward to northward after that. The track model spread 
increases quickly beyond day 4, at which time confidence in the 
forecast is a little lower than normal. The model consensus hasn't 
changed much, so only small adjustments were made to the official 
track forecast.
INIT  09/0300Z 19.5N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 20.4N  37.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 21.5N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 22.6N  40.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 23.9N  41.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 25.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 27.0N  42.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 30.0N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 33.0N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:34 UTC