Hurricane FRANKLIN (Text)

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Franklin continues to slowly succumb to the increasingly 
unfavorable conditions the large hurricane is embedded in. The large 
eye that had been evident over the last day or so is no longer 
observed on infrared satellite imagery, likely due to 25-30 kt of 
northerly shear affecting the convective structure which now favors 
the southern side of the storm. This observation is also consistent 
with the radar reflectivity returns from the Bermuda radar. With 
that said, both the subjective and objective intensity estimates 
this morning still support an intensity in the 85-90 kt range. Thus 
Franklin's intensity will remain 85 kt this advisory, though this 
may be generous. 

Franklin continues to move to the east-northeast this morning at an 
estimated 070/12 kt. As previously discussed, the hurricane is being 
steered by the flow between a subtropical ridge to its southeast and 
a trough now ejecting eastward out of the northeastern U.S. After 
days of large track spread, the guidance this cycle is in better 
agreement this morning, showing a continued east-northeast or 
northeastward motion with gradual acceleration. The latest NHC 
track forecast is not that much changed from the prior one, though 
with a bit more acceleration towards the end of the forecast 
period, trending towards the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. 

With continued northerly shear expected to persist another 24 hours, 
Franklin should continue to weaken in the short-term. There may be a 
brief period between 24-48 h where the shear temporarily decreases 
as the hurricane becomes positioned in the right entrance region of 
a jet streak as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough. This is why 
the intensity forecast shows the weakening trend briefly pausing in 
36-48 h. However, this baroclinic forcing will also likely hasten 
its transition into an extratropical cyclone, with the latest 
forecast now showing this being completed by 60 h, consistent with 
simulated-IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF at that time.

Now that Franklin is moving further away from Bermuda, the 
Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical 
Storm Warning for the island. 
1. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the 
east coast of the United States and Bermuda. These conditions are 
expected to continue during the next day or two.
INIT  31/0900Z 34.9N  63.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 35.8N  60.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 37.2N  57.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 38.7N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 40.8N  49.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 43.3N  45.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0600Z 45.5N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0600Z 47.5N  34.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0600Z 50.1N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Forecaster Papin

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:20 UTC