Hurricane FRANKLIN (Text)

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery has improved slightly since 
this morning, with a tight inner core developing around the center. 
There have been hints of an eye developing in infrared and visible 
images throughout the day, but the eye remains cloud filled. 
Franklin is still dealing with a little bit of drier mid-level dry 
air trying to wrap into the eastern side. Subjective and objective 
Dvorak estimates have remained steady throughout the day today. With 
these estimates combined with the lower surface pressure reported by 
the aircraft, the initial intensity remains at 85 kt this advisory. 
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system 
later this evening.
Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for the next few days, 
with very warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear 
forecast to decrease. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and 
Franklin could become a major hurricane on Monday. In about 3 to 4 
days, weakening is forecast as Franklin encounters increased shear 
and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast 
to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.
Franklin is moving northwestward at 8 kt, around a broad 
high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin. This ridge will steer 
the system more north-northwestward and northward over the next 
couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep 
trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast, and most of the 
guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, 
with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The official 
NHC forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, with only 
slight adjustments to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast track 
still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, 
but interests there should continue to monitor the latest NHC 
forecasts. By day 5, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper 
trough and begin an extratropical transition, although that is not 
explicitly forecast.
INIT  27/2100Z 25.9N  70.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 27.0N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 28.5N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 30.0N  70.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 31.5N  69.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 33.2N  68.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 34.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 37.1N  58.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 41.0N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:19 UTC