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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
 
Franklin is pulling away from the Dominican Republic and the Turks
and Caicos, and appears to be gradually gaining strength.  Satellite
images show deep convection increasing near and to the east of the
center, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported that a partial
eyewall was developing on their last pass through the storm.  The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on the earlier reconnaissance
data and is also near the average of the various satellite intensity
estimates.
 
The tropical storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is being steered
by the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
the central subtropical Atlantic.  The ridge is expected to weaken
soon, and that should cause Franklin to turn northeastward and slow
down during the next couple of days.  However, beyond that time, the
models show the ridge building back to the west, and the flow
between that feature and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
eastern U.S. should cause Franklin to bend back northward at a
slightly faster pace.  The models have shifted a little to the left
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction and takes the system to the west of Bermuda early next
week.
 
Franklin appears to be on a gradual strengthening trend, and that is
expected to continue through the weekend as the storm remains over
warm waters, in a moist environment, and in generally moderate wind
shear conditions.  All of the normally skillful intensity models
bring Franklin to hurricane strength in a few days, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows that theme.  This forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 21.9N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 22.6N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 23.2N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 23.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 24.0N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 24.9N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 26.0N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 29.4N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 33.5N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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