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Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023
 
After a brief intensification period overnight, Gert is quickly
unraveling this morning.  The surface circulation is becoming
ill-defined while the associated sheared mass of convection is
shrinking.  Although the cloud pattern has certainly become less
organized during the past few hours, the initial intensity is
generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is supported by the
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.  Despite a rather diffluent
upper-wind pattern, strong, persistent westerly shear and a
statically stable and dry mid-tropospheric surrounding air mass
should force Gert's surface center to separate farther from the
diminishing convective mass later today and degenerate to a remnant
low by this evening.  The morning's global model simulated infrared
imagery also shows the cyclone opening to a trough of low pressure
in less than 36 hours, and the NHC official forecast reflects this
prediction.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt.  A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and
this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on
Tuesday.  The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
right of the previous one and is based on the simple and NOAA HFIP
Corrected Consensus forecasts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 16.7N  56.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 17.0N  57.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0600Z 17.6N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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