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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023
 
Visible satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection 
north and east of the depression has dissipated this afternoon. Once 
again, the center of circulation is completely exposed and is not as 
well-defined as earlier today. Based on a blend of objective and 
subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity estimate for 
this advisory is held at 30 kt.

Not much has changed with the forecast reasoning. Strong deep-layer 
westerly shear and unfavorable mid-level thermodynamics are 
expected to preclude further development of the depression. Global 
models and ensembles are in agreement that intensification 
is unlikely, and thus the official forecast has the depression as a 
remnant low in 12 h and dissipated in 24 h.
 
The depression is now moving slightly north of due west, and this 
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. 
The official track forecast is a blend of consensus guidance and is 
similar to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 16.6N  54.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.7N  56.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett
 
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