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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023
 
The center of the depression remains fully exposed in satellite
imagery this morning, with the associated convection displaced well
to the east by strong westerly shear. Given the lack of improvement
in the cyclone's satellite presentation, and a blend of the latest
objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The strong deep-layer westerly shear plaguing the depression is
forecast to increase to over 40 kt later today. This, combined with
relatively dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, will
make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain organized convection
going forward. Therefore, the official forecast now calls for the
system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 h, in agreement with the
latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery. The global
models suggest the weak low is likely to open into a trough soon
thereafter, and so this update shows dissipation in 36 h.
 
The depression has moved a bit south of due west over the past
several hours, but its long-term motion remains westward at 13 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue until dissipation
occurs, as the system moves within low-level easterly flow to the
south of a subtropical ridge. Given the recent motion toward the
west-southwest, this updated track forecast lies to the south of the
previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 16.8N  52.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 17.0N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 17.3N  56.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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