Subtropical Storm DON (Text)

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

While the low-level circulation of Don remains robust, any 
associated convection is weaker than overnight and farther from the 
center.  Satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much, so the 
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, though this feels a little 
generous.  Unfortunately, the morning scatterometer passes missed 
the center.

Don has wobbled northwestward overnight, at about 8 kt.  The storm 
should turn northward later today and then eastward by late tomorrow 
while it moves around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. 
The biggest change to the forecast of Don is that the track guidance 
has shifted northward in the first few days of the forecast period.  
The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, with little change in 
the longer range as Don moves southward around the east side of the 
strong ridge.

The storm should remain in a marginal environment during the next 
few days with cool SSTs and dry air lurking, causing the system to 
keep about the same strength or gradually decay.  With the northward 
forecast change, taking Don across cooler waters, it is possible 
that Don could weaken into a depression or a remnant low in a 
couple of days.  Some re-intensification is possible at long 
range when Don moves over warmer waters, though the uncertainty is 
high.  No big changes were made to the previous forecast, but it 
wouldn't be surprising if downward adjustments were necessary in 
the afternoon forecast package.
INIT  15/1500Z 36.5N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 37.8N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 39.1N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 39.5N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 39.3N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 38.4N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 36.8N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 33.9N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 33.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
Forecaster Blake

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:11 UTC