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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023
 
Deep bursts of convection over Cindy's center, with cloud top 
temperature less than -90C, have been forming since the last 
advisory.  A microwave pass at 0526 UTC showed a curved band 
wrapping around the southern semicircle of the estimated low-level 
center and a relatively aligned vortex.  However, weak-to-moderate 
northwesterly shear may still be affecting the storm and could 
explain the most recent warming trends in the cloud top 
temperatures.  A blend of the subjective satellite estimates from 
TAFB and SAB support a slight increase in the initial intensity to 
50 kt.
 
The window for Cindy to strengthen further is coming to end. 
Vertical wind shear is expected to increase within a day as the 
storm nears an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic and 
forces surrounding drier mid-level air into the circulation. These 
unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to weaken the 
storm after a day or so.  The GFS (and the regional models dependent 
on its boundary conditions) still forecasts Cindy to maintain a 
coherent low-level vortex and re-strengthen beyond the forecast 
period.  This scenario does not seem as likely given the small size 
of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast favors the weaker intensity 
guidance that shows dissipation by day 5.  However, changes may be 
necessary to future forecasts.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt.  A general 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 
few days as Cindy moves along the periphery of a subtropical ridge 
to its northeast. The spread in track model guidance increases early 
next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a 
track to the right of the other models. The NHC track forecast is 
slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the 
left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC 
intensity forecast. On the current forecast track, Cindy is expected 
to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 14.6N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.0N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 18.1N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 20.4N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 22.2N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 23.6N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 24.8N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 26.8N  63.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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