Tropical Storm CINDY (Text)

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Cindy appears to be gradually strengthening this morning. A curved 
band formed overnight to the west of the center and has wrapped 
around on its southern semicircle. A SSMIS microwave pass at 1003 
UTC also showed this band with the center becoming more embedded 
within the larger cirrus canopy. Subjective Dvorak estimates were 
T3.0/45-kt from SAB and T3.5/55-kt from TAFB. The latest objective 
intensity estimates were a little on the lower side with 41 kt from 
ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial 
ASCAT-B pass at 1233 UTC, but it likely did not capture the highest 
winds on the northeast side of Cindy's circulation. A blend of the 
subjective and objective intensity guidance supports a current 
intensity of 45-kt for this advisory. 

It seems that Cindy has a 24-h window to intensify further, while 
vertical wind shear (both deep-layer and mid-level) remains under 
15 kt as the storm traverses 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures in a 
marginally moist mid-level air environment. However, beyond that 
period, shear out of the northwest increases markedly as the system 
approaches the same upper-level trough shearing Bret, and this 
increase in shear is likely to import drier mid-level air from that 
direction. The intensity guidance is largely in agreement that Cindy 
will intensify for the next day or so, but are in less agreement of 
how quickly the storm will weaken after the shear increases. Given 
the small size of Cindy, it seems more likely to be adversely 
affected by the expected negative environmental conditions and 
steady weakening is forecast beyond that time, with the system 
likely becoming a remnant low sometime in the 4-5 day time frame. 
This intensity forecast is a little bit under the HCCA and IVCN 
consensus aids after 24 h.  

Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest at around 290/14 kt. 
This general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as 
Cindy moves around a mid-level ridge centered to its east-northeast. 
Even though a weakness in the ridge is forecast to become more 
pronounced north of Cindy in the 3-5 day time period, the system is 
also forecast to become more vertically shallow, and be more steered 
by low-level ridging which will remain in place. The latest track 
aid guidance shifted ever so slightly northward compared to the 
previous cycle, and the new track forecast was shifted a little 
in that direction. This track forecast is a bit south of the 
consensus aids, but assumes Cindy will likely be a more shallow 
system by the end of the period. Cindy's track forecast remains 
well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
INIT  23/1500Z 12.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 13.6N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.2N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.9N  55.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 18.7N  57.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 20.2N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 21.8N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 24.0N  64.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 26.7N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Forecaster Papin

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:09 UTC