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Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
 
The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit a shear pattern on 
satellite imagery with the center located to the east of the main 
area of deep convection.  Banding features are not very well 
defined at this time.  Although the low-level center is perhaps a 
little better defined than it was earlier today, there has been 
little change to the overall convective organization.  The current 
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is the average 
of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone will remain over warm waters and within a marginally 
moist atmosphere for the next several days.  This should allow at 
least gradual strengthening during the next couple of days.  The 
main factor for the longer-term future intensity of the system is 
likely to be a large upper-level trough that extends from the 
northeastern Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for 
several hundred miles.  This feature is predicted by the global 
models to persist through the 72 hour time frame.  Since the 
tropical cyclone is expected to interact with this trough in 2-3 
days, the associated increase in vertical shear will likely cause 
some weakening.  By the end of the forecast period, when the system 
nears subtropical latitudes, the shear may decrease.  However, it is 
not yet clear that the cyclone will be able to make a comeback by 
that time.

The depression continues on a west-northwesterly track with an 
estimated motion of 285/12 kt.  There is not much change to the 
track forecast reasoning.  For the next several days, the system 
should continue on a generally west-northwestward, to nearly 
northwestward, path along the periphery of a subtropical high 
pressure area.  The official track forecast is very close to the 
dynamical model consensus and is slightly to the west of the 
previous NHC track.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 11.5N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 12.0N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 13.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.4N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 16.0N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.6N  56.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.1N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 21.6N  63.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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