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Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
 
Arlene is only producing small bursts of convection to the north and 
northeast of its exposed low-level center tonight. The Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone earlier this 
evening and reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt in the 
northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds support an 
initial intensity of 35 kt, which is also consistent with the 
latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS. 

Arlene is moving south-southeastward (155 degrees) at 6 kt. The 
cyclone remains embedded within a mid-level trough, which is 
resulting in significant vertical wind shear over the system. The 
steering flow on the upstream side of this trough should keep the 
cyclone moving generally southeastward during the next day or so. An 
increasingly dry and confluent environment aloft, along with 
continued deep-layer shear, is expected to limit new convective 
development overnight. The NHC forecast shows Arlene spinning down 
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, degenerating to a remnant low 
on Saturday and dissipating by early Sunday.

Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still 
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern 
Florida peninsula through Saturday. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 25.4N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 24.4N  85.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 23.5N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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