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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
 
The depression remains a sheared tropical cyclone. While a new burst 
of moderate to deep convection has developed this evening over the 
northeastern portion of the circulation, the center is exposed and 
appears elongated based on satellite imagery and low-level GOES-16 
derived motion winds. Given the lack of improvement in its 
structure, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a blend 
of the earlier aircraft data and more recent satellite estimates.  

The cyclone appears to be moving slowly southward in the latest 
satellite imagery, with an estimated initial motion of 180/3 kt. As 
the associated upper-level trough axis continues to shift eastward, 
deep-layer northwesterly flow is expected to steer the cyclone 
southward to south-southeastward at a slightly faster speed during 
the next couple of days. The latest track guidance remains in good 
agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous one with only minor adjustments based on the 
latest consensus aids.

There is still a brief window for some modest strengthening during 
the next 6-12 h, as the warm Gulf SSTs and cold temperatures aloft 
could provide enough instability to support more deep convection 
during the overnight diurnal maximum period. The official NHC 
forecast still calls for the system to briefly become a tropical 
storm before environmental conditions become increasingly hostile 
later on Friday and into Saturday. In addition to increasing 
deep-layer shear, dry air in the surrounding environment and less 
favorable dynamics will make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain 
organized convection and should induce a weakening trend. This 
forecast shows the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h and 
dissipating by 60 h, with support from the latest GFS and ECMWF 
model-simulated satellite imagery.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, 
coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 27.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 26.8N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 25.4N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 23.9N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 22.9N  85.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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