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Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022
 
...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF 
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. 
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 106.7 West.  Roslyn is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion should 
continue tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the 
north-northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making 
landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday 
morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although some weakening could occur tonight, 
Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when 
it makes landfall on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the
next few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula this evening or tonight, and
within the warning area north of Escuinapa on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:
 
Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
 
Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.
 
Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.
 
Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.
 
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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