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BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022
 
...ROSLYN BECOMES A HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning along
the west-central coast of Mexico north of San Blas to El Roblito.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected overnight,
followed by turn to the north on Saturday and a north-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed Saturday night and Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and early Saturday, then 
approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along 
this coastline Saturday night or Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is 
forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn could be near 
major hurricane intensity when it nears the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within 
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or early Sunday.  Winds 
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday 
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday or Saturday night.
 
RAINFALL:  Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall 
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central 
Mexico: 

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas 
Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts 
of 8 inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum 
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas 
of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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