ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn has continued to move inland over west-central Mexico this afternoon. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers have decoupled due to the system's interaction with mountainous terrain and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is based on a typical overland decay rate. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate this evening or overnight over central Mexico. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at about 18 kt. The cyclone or its remnants should continue move north-northeastward over central and northeastern Mexico through early Monday. A 12-hour forecast position has been provided for the sake of continuity, but it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds gusts, especially in mountainous terrain, will continue near the track of Roslyn during the next several hours. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 24.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0600Z 26.8N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:25 UTC