ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:25 UTC