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Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Roslyn is nearing west-central Mexico this morning, with a cloud 
pattern that is becoming a little less organized with a more 
obscured eye.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has 
provided valuable data this evening, despite severe turbulence, 
showing that the hurricane hasn't lost much strength, with 
flight-level and SFMR winds both supporting a current intensity of 
110 kt.  This intensity also matches a slightly higher central 
pressure of about 958 mb, up just a few mb since the last 
reconnaissance mission.  

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery show that Roslyn has 
turned to the north-northeast and is moving faster, at about 14 kt. 
The hurricane should continue to accelerate and make landfall in 
the next several hours, likely in northern Nayarit, similar to the 
track models.  There isn't much time left for any increase in shear 
to affect Roslyn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall 
at about its current strength.  Rapid weakening will occur over the 
mountainous terrain of western Mexico later this morning, and Roslyn 
should lose its circulation this evening. No significant changes 
were made to the previous forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Roslyn is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall 
along the west-central coast of Mexico within the next several 
hours, accompanied by damaging winds and a life-threatening storm 
surge.  Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the 
west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 21.1N 106.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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